Photo: John LeBlanc
Don't expect to see too many electric or fuel-cell cars in the near future
We're got a while to wait for the brave new world of electric-powered vehicles, according to KPMG International's 2012 Global Automotive Executive Survey.
The consulting firm's annual report, drawn from interviews with 200 senior executives from all sectors of the auto industry, predicts electrified vehicles — from pure battery EVs to hybrids and fuel-cell autos — will not exceed 15 per cent of annual global new-car registrations before 2025.
"And for the immediate future, hybrids will continue to be more popular than pure battery-powered cars," says the report, released this week. "Over time, fuel cell vehicles are seen as a more promising prospect than battery-electrified cars, especially in the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China)."
That still amounts to between nine and 14 million new EVs registered annually by 2026, the survey says.
Hybrids, which make up about one per cent of passenger vehicle sales in Canada, will outsell battery-powered cars several times over in the next 13 years, followed by range-extender models such as the Chevrolet Volt.
"Respondents from the BRIC nations believe fuel cell-powered vehicles will attract the most consumer demand, with the exception of China, where pure battery-powered vehicles are expected to come out on top," the report notes.
"Given the longer distances achievable with fuel cell-driven cars, it is some surprise that none of the U.S. executives surveyed consider fuel cell as an option for consumers by 2025."
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"The need for new electric propulsion technology is still top of mind for auto executives around the world given the demand that will be felt in the emerging markets," says KPMG partner Peter Hatges, lead of the firm's automotive practice, commented in a news release.
"Automotive companies will continue to invest heavily in electric propulsion and will play a leadership role in the development of these emerging technologies going forward. The race is on, but there is no clear winner at this point."
The comprehensive survey, also found executives in North America and Western Europe were more pessimistic about EVs, predicting global annual sales of just six to 10 per cent. And nearly two thirds of all those surveyed believe optimizing the internal-combustion engine offers greater efficiency and the most potential for carbon emission reduction than the current technologies over the next five years.
"Electromobility is a colossal issue for the industry," said Hatges. "The key automotive players should have a clearer vision on this, even though how and when fully electric cars will be a reality is dependent on a variety of complex and interrelated factors."
